Monday, May 29, 2017

Nova Scotia Projection

This is my final projection for the Nova Scotia election unless any polls showing a big swing come out tomorrow.

I expect McNeil's Liberals to retain a narrowed majority, with the PCs gaining seats and the NDP losing some. The latest polls by the 2 firms that have actively polled this election, Mainstreet and CRA, both show the Liberals in majority territory.

Some close ridings to note:

Cumberland North: Liberal Terry Farrell won by about 10 points last time. My projections have this riding extremely close between the PCs and Liberals, and this riding is next door to PC leader Jamie Baillie's seat. However, I have the Farrell winning the riding as I expect a large chunk of the NDP vote in 2013 to go to Farrell, since the NDP incumbent who was defeated last time is not running.

Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River: This riding was the hardest one for me to call, but in the end I decided to give the edge toward NDP incumbent Lenore Zann. She beat the Liberal candidate by 7 points last time and the PC candidate by about 10. With the NDP falling and the PCs gaining, my projections show this riding to be very close. However, I expect that much of the fall in NDP votes will come from ridings where former NDP incumbents are no longer running (such as Darrell Dexter's), and that NDP incumbents will do somewhat better.

Victoria-The Lakes: Unlike the other 2 ridings, I have the PCs winning this riding by a more comfortable 6 percent, but the Liberal incumbent Pam Eyking has a good shot at retaining the riding. She won by just 4 percent last time, which isn't enough of to counter the swing toward the PCs in polling, but her incumbency could help her pull through. Being the wife of Federal MP Mark Eyking  doesn't hurt.


  1. Out of curiosity, why are you so sure Cape Breton Cente and Sydney-Whitney Pier will go back to the NDP?

    1. This isn't an exhaustive list of close seats. The first two are seats are changed manually from my seat projector based on the factors mentioned and the third I thought was interesting because of the MHA who is running. All the NDP incumbents face close races, with Halifax Needham being the only riding the NDP wins by more than 5% according to my projection, and barely at that. The NDP could very well end up with no seats.